The Bottom Line: A remarkably nuanced dark psychological thriller that deftly explores the promise and limitations of predictive analytics, as well as the realities of non-traditional family life in America.
Orphan-turned-entrepreneur Sebastian Glass has come a long way in 41 years, but his life is far from the stereotypical American dream. As a baby, he was abandoned in a dumpster before his adoption into a rural midwestern family. These days, he still lives in filth. Sebastian drives a luxury sports car and runs consulting firm Glass Analytic Consulting (GAC), but his modern “family” consists of a number of girls he uses for sex – some of whom he rescued from circumstances even more miserable and dangerous than the abusive environment he has created for them.
As Forecasting Error opens, Sebastian, who is wildly charismatic and persuasive, is trying to please a difficult client — General Mukendi Agu, the leader of an African resistance movement. Using his proprietary predictive analytics engine, Sebstian purports to sell intelligence that literally predicts the future. But after the general’s trust in Sebastian’s data resulted in the loss of 217 men, he demands that Sebabastian now help him ensure the dictator he’s trying to overthrow is dead before the upcoming election in five weeks. For Sebastian, failure to live up to the general’s expectations could be fatal.
Enter talented 24-year-old data modeler and analyst Liz Charming. It’s easy to see why Liz might be unconsciously drawn to work for Sebsatian, since he is everything that she is not: stylish, socially gifted and professionally sophisticated. Like him, she was also seriously traumatized as a child, suffering from serious parental abandonment issues.
But when Liz begins to research some of the company’s clients, she comes to the quick conclusion that GAC is heavily involved in enabling crime and terrorism (choice quote from her first meeting with lewd mobster client, Tony: “Sorry little girl, but unless your estimates can do something about my cock, I have no reason to believe ya can help me”). Should she simply call the authorities? The answer is certainly yes, but Liz’s past prevents her from trusting any government law enforcement agency.
In compelling chapters told from Liz’s point of view, she gradually turns to her dead mother’s surviving life partner, Wanda. As both get reacquainted, ex-FBI agent Wanda – and her son, Kenny – become unlikely mentors and allies. As Sebastian becomes increasingly reliant on the promise of Liz’s analytics engine, both find themselves in far more danger than they had ever imagined.
In the context of a truly fascinating thriller, author Michael Grigsby, who also penned Missing Values, explores the reality of non-traditional families. Sebastian comes off as a wanna-be-cult leader with a penchant for cruelty and perversion, and the women he takes in are hopelessly broken refugees. Meanwhile, Grigsby’s illustration of Liz’s family – the one she was born into, and the one she finds – is an undertold American story. In Grigby’s hands, Liz is a heroine searching for happiness while assembling a family who do not match the typical definitions of American family life. Grigsby renders her rather wholesome story all the more moving by juxtaposing it with regular jolts of Sebastian’s dark universe.
Like Missing Values, Forecasting Error is another remarkable work of fiction that has few peers in terms of subject matter or characterization. Recommended for readers looking for a break from the usual genre retreads.
